Rafael is forecast to strengthen Tuesday and will likely become a hurricane over the next 24 hours as it batters the western Caribbean on the first leg of an uncertain journey toward the US Gulf Coast.

From there, the forecast takes Rafael past Jamaica, which remains under a tropical storm warning, and the Caymans, which remain under a hurricane warning, on Tuesday. The lower Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas are under a tropical storm watch.

The National Hurricane Center forecast Tropical Storm Rafael to grow into the season’s 11th hurricane on Tuesday as it moved toward Cuba with winds and