The future will always surprise us. But if you train your organization to sense early, act decisively, and treat uncertainty ...

Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...

For millennia, humans have sought new ways of predicting the future, leading to such methods as the crystal ball, star charts and even tea leaf reading. Luckily, the modern business leader has better ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...

For years, the strange phenomenon of precognition–an unwavering “gut feeling” that something will happen in the future–has puzzled scientists. The eerie concept may sound far-fetched, but many studies ...

Your friend says to you: "I bet you $100 that in 2016 a Democrat will be elected as president of the USA." Would you take such a wager? Why or why not? You might think gambling is wrong. You might ...

Data Khosrowshahi says the pace of change in technology, consumer behaviour, and global events has made long-term predictions ...

Tracey Follows studied at the University of Manchester, where she developed the philosophical and strategic foundations that ...