Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past, or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

A common technique for eliciting subjective probabilities is to provide a set of exclusive and exhaustive events and ask the assessor to estimate the probabilities of such events. However, such ...

AI researchers use the expression “P(doom”) to mean the probability that the rise of artificial intelligence will have a disastrous effect on humanity, such as extinction or enslavement. Expert ...